Confidence Rating improvement
Suggestion to Improve Confidence Rating use.
The program should be rewritten as follows:
Each Confidence rating should have a probability attached to it, just like the stages. The logic would be as follows:
- Set a probability rating for each stage.
- Set a probability for each Confidence rating.
- If the Confidence probability = the Stage probability, use the Stage probability.
- If the Confidence probability is less than or greater than the Stage probability, use the Confidence probability.
This would make the Pipeline much more accurate. The effect would be to tweak the probability and get it much closer to the truth. For example, if I send out a quote, I presently give myself a 22% probability, because historically we win 22% of the dollars we bid. However, if there is a quote that we know the customer will never use our services, for whatever reason, I could make the confidence Very Unlikely and put the probability at 5%. Therefore, on that Opportunity, the probability would be 5% not 22%. The accuracy of our weighted average pipeline dollars would be much closer to the truth.
I would think that anyone who uses the pipeline in Maximizer would love this improvement.
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Richard Harris commented
Absolutely agree. I am thinking of using a combined rating based on adapting another program I use called RFM for Windows (Recency Frequency Monetary) which applies a scoring which in Opportunities case would consist of 2 numbers say beween 1 - 5. The result would be a score of 5 for highest probability and 5 for the highest confidence rating so concatenate and the opportunity score = 55. Sort all Opps in descending order and you have your graded listing ! Ian's suggestion would be a move in the right direction.
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Ian Wallace - CABC commented
This area does have scope for improvement. The mathematics of probability is usually multiplication not addition. A 50% chance the customer will actually buy something and a 50% chance they will buy from me is a 25% forecasting probability and not 50% + 50% =100%. Maximizer likes to add up probabilities in strategies when they are better multiplied. 90% fit of the product and 10% score for relationship is better represented as a 9% deal probability!
Stage and Confidence weights should also be multiplied.
waiting for the purchase decision stage (90%) Confidence very low (10%) = Forecast probability 9%
waiting for the purchase decision stage (90%) Confidence very High (90%) = Forecast probability 81%
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Ashley Walgren commented
I believe that this would be an improvement for our pipeline outlook.
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Denise Stewart commented
This would be awesome!
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Warren Mathusek commented
This idea would make a dramatic improvement in the accuracy of the pipeline.